Allen's Median Home Price Swung Both Ways This Fall. Here's the Number That Barely Moved

If you looked only at September 2026, Allen home prices fell almost 9%. The single-family median sale price was $475,000, down from $520,000 in September 2025, according to the NTREIS MLS summary that the Texas Real Estate Research Center produces and MetroTex Association of Realtors publishes. If you looked only at August 2026, prices rose 8%. That month's median was $540,000, up from $499,950 a year earlier.

Between those two reports, Allen's median fell $65,000. Most of that swing reflects which houses happened to close each month. Price per square foot and supply give a calmer picture. Allen is roughly flat on price, a bit tighter on inventory than a year ago, and it sits in a different leverage group than the builder-heavy cities to its north. If you're pricing a home or writing an offer this fall, you want those numbers, not the headline.

Two months of Allen, side by side

The median and average rows jump around. The price-per-square-foot row stays within a few dollars. That gap is the whole story.

Seventy-three closings can't set a citywide price

A median is the middle sale in a stack of closed sales. In September 2026, that stack held 73 Allen homes. A handful of larger homes closing one month, or a run of smaller ones closing the next, is enough to move the midpoint by tens of thousands of dollars.

The averages show this happened. In August 2026, Allen's average sale price jumped about 15% from a year earlier, to $610,032. Median price per square foot slipped from $213.13 to $212.91 over the same period. When the average climbs that fast while price per foot stays flat, buyers weren't paying more for the same house. Bigger or more expensive homes made up more of that month's closings. September went the other way. The median fell $45,000 from a year earlier, but the average fell only about 2%, and price per square foot fell about 2.4%.

Community Impact's monthly Allen reports, which use a slightly different count, show the same swing. They put Allen's median at $510,000 in July, $530,000 in August and $474,330 in September. Their sales counts don't match NTREIS. For September they report 76 sales, against NTREIS's 73. So the two series show the same pattern but shouldn't be mixed into one calculation.

Price per square foot is the number that held

Over the two most recent months, Allen's median price per square foot moved between flat and down a couple of percent. That's the cost of the house itself, with the month's mix of home sizes mostly taken out.

The sold-to-list ratio tells a similar story. Allen sellers got 95.7% of list price in August 2026 and 94.4% in September. Both are within about a point of the same months in 2025. In a city where values had really dropped 9%, you'd expect bigger gaps between asking and closing prices. You'd also expect listings to stack up. Allen saw the opposite.

Supply puts Allen next to Plano, not Prosper

Allen had 282 active single-family listings in September 2026, down from 319 a year earlier, and months of inventory dropped from 3.9 to 3.4. The county as a whole ran 4.4 months of inventory, with a $447,000 median and a 93.2% sold-to-list ratio. So Allen is tighter than Collin County overall.

Plano looks a lot like Allen. Its September 2026 median fell to $510,000 from $526,500, but its average sale price rose to $587,066 from $579,341. Inventory tightened from 3.6 to 3.2 months, and the sold-to-list ratio rose to 95.0%. That's the same pattern as Allen, with a softer median sitting on top of firmer supply numbers.

Prosper and Celina are a different market. In Prosper, September 2026 inventory rose to 6.5 months from 5.2. Days on market reached 90, and sellers got 90.1% of list price. Celina's median fell from $575,000 to $435,000, but that change rests on just 11 closed sales one year and 10 the next. Celina's inventory of 6.3 months is the more useful figure, and it's still high even after falling from 10.1. Both cities sit around the six months of supply that D Magazine's September 2026 market report describes as the usual marker of a buyer's market. That report also found builders in Prosper and Celina offering mortgage rates below 5% and discounts approaching $100,000 on some new homes.

Those builder incentives explain much of the north county's leverage, and most of them never show up in these numbers. The NTREIS report counts only homes sold through the MLS, so builder sales outside the MLS aren't in it. We covered how builder competition shifts resale negotiations in our Denton County piece on builders selling next door. Allen has much less of that pressure. D Magazine's reporting describes a market that is "rewarding scarcity," with demand going to homes that stand out by neighborhood, lot, age or condition.

The one Allen number moving the wrong way

Not every Allen figure points toward a tighter market. Pending sales, meaning homes under contract that haven't closed yet, fell to 57 in September 2026 from 90 a year earlier. That's a drop of more than a third. August's pending count was also down, to 77 from 93.

Pending sales are where future closings come from, so fewer contracts in September likely means a smaller set of fall closings. A smaller set makes the median even more erratic. It also hints at the "wait and watch" mood among buyers that D Magazine reported across DFW this year. Months of inventory is calculated from recent sales, so if contract activity stays this slow, Allen's supply figure could drift up even without new listings. Allen has tightened on supply, but the number of buyers signing contracts is falling.

What to pull before you price or offer in Allen

1. Price per square foot for homes like yours. Use the right size range and the right part of Allen. Allen's citywide figure held between about $208 and $213 in August and September 2026. A comparison built on similar homes is much steadier than one month's citywide median.
2. Three months of closings, not one. In NTREIS data, Allen's median dropped $65,000 between August and September alone. Community Impact's July through September medians span more than $55,000. Any single month in that window can make a home look overpriced or like a bargain.
3. Sold-to-list ratio next to days on market. In September 2026, Allen sellers got 94.4% of list price, with a median of 48 days on market. Together, those two numbers show what negotiating room actually looked like.
4. Pending counts each month. This is the earliest sign of whether the tight inventory holds into winter.

If you're comparing Allen with nearby cities, our Allen neighborhood page and the Collin County inventory breakdown add more context.

Quick answers

Did Allen home prices drop in 2026? The September 2026 median was 8.7% lower than a year earlier, but the August median was 8% higher. Median price per square foot changed between 0.1% and 2.4% across those two months, which points to a mostly flat market.

Is Allen a buyer's market right now? By supply, no. Allen had 3.4 months of inventory in September 2026, below the county's 4.4 and well below Prosper's 6.5. Buyers do have more time than a year ago in some segments, and fewer homes went under contract in September.

When does October data come out? The September report was produced October 7, 2026, and the August report September 7. Going by that schedule, expect October figures in early November. Read them with the same caution, since Allen's next median will again rest on fewer than 100 sales.

If you want to know what your Allen home is worth by price per square foot rather than by the month's headline median, Andrew Bradshaw will pull the closed sales that actually match your house and walk you through them. Start with a home valuation request, or reach out through the contact page to talk through offer strategy for this fall. Work with Andrew.